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diff --git a/content/tech/brawlstars-analysis.md b/content/tech/brawlstars-analysis.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..117d9b4 --- /dev/null +++ b/content/tech/brawlstars-analysis.md @@ -0,0 +1,30 @@ +--- +date: 2019-05-15 +title: Analysing Brawlstars' progression system +draft: true +--- + +Brawlstars is a mobile 3v3 MOBA-like game developed by Supercell. I developed a statistics website for it and took a deeper look at the data. +<!--more--> + +You can read more about Brawlstars [here](https://supercell.com/en/games/brawlstars/). + +There is an unofficial Brawlstars API ([link](https://github.com/fourjr/brawlapi-docs)) which, given a tag (a unique user identifier), returns profile data as seen in game. I built a website with it ([link](https://brawlstarstime.ninja)) where a player can enter their tag and see their statistics. + +The Brawlstars progression system is simple: Gain experience by playing more games. Winning games gets you more experience. A player can play one of currently 25 Brawlers which have a trophy rating, starting at 0. Players unlock Brawlers as rewards from chests, so by chance. You lose trophies by losing games and win trophies by winning games. The amount of trophies won/lost depends on the Brawler's current trophies, so this rating is points-based and not Elo-like. 300 to 339 trophies is the break-even point where as many trophies are won as they are lost. The total trophy rating is the sum of all Brawler ratings, which means that in order to get a high rating, a player needs to unlock and play many Brawlers. + +For this post, I used a sample of 4200 players. The majority of them are between 3000 and 7000 trophies. This shows that the data is biased towards higher-skilled players. Players have to actively search for my website, which is unlikely to happen for novices. + + +This graph shows the relationship between experience and trophies. + + +Until about 10000 trophies, it is almost linear. After that, a player has to exponentially play more to gain more trophies. This is explained by the balance of the trophy system: Assuming that a player eventually reaches a 50% win rate, at 25 Brawlers they end up at about 8500 trophies. + +This becomes more apparent looking at the derivate and its standard deviation. In the following graph you can see for each 1000 trophies how fast players progress on average. + + +Experience is an indicator for the amount of time a player has put into the game. As expected, beginners are able to climb rapidly and there is a lot of variation. Starting from 10000 trophies, the standard deviation starts increasing. This suggests that players are stuck between 11000 and 14000 trophies, putting more time into the game without increasing their rank. These players have reached their skill cap with all their Brawlers. + +The average number of Brawlers for each trophy bucket confirms this theory. +
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